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With rising global temperatures, urban environments are increasingly vulnerable to heat stress, often exacerbated by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. While most UHI research has focused on large metropolitan areas around the world, relatively smaller-sized cities (with a population 100 000–300 000) remain understudied despite their growing exposure to extreme heat and meteorological significance. In particular, urban heat advection (UHA), the transport of heat by mean winds, remains a key but underexplored mechanism in most modeling frameworks. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are essential tools for simulating urban hydrometeorological conditions, yet most prior evaluations have focused on retrospective reanalysis products rather than forecasts. In this study, we assess the performance of a widely used operational weather forecast model, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), as a representative example of current NWP systems. We investigate its ability to predict spatial and temporal patterns of urban heat and UHA within and around Lubbock, Texas, a small-sized city located in a semi-arid environment in the southwestern US. Using data collected between 1 September 2023, and 31 August 2024 from the Urban Heat Island Experiment in Lubbock, Texas (U-HEAT) network and five West Texas Mesonet stations, we compare 18 h forecasts against in situ observations. HRRR forecasts exhibit a consistent nighttime cold bias at both urban and rural sites, a daytime warm bias at rural locations, and a pervasive dry bias across all seasons. The model also systematically overestimates near-surface wind speeds, further limiting its ability to accurately predict UHA. Although HRRR captures the expected slower nocturnal cooling in urban areas, it does not well capture advective heat transport under most wind regimes. Our findings reveal both systematic biases and urban representation limitations in current high-resolution NWP forecasts. Our forecast–observation comparisons underscore the need for improved urban parameterizations and evaluation frameworks focused on forecast skill, with important implications for heat-risk warning systems and forecasting in small and mid-sized cities. 

Abstract Surface‐atmosphere fluxes and their drivers vary across space and time. A growing area of interest is in downscaling, localizing, and/or resolving sub‐grid scale energy, water, and carbon fluxes and drivers. Existing downscaling methods require inputs of land surface properties at relatively high spatial (e.g., sub‐kilometer) and temporal (e.g., hourly) resolutions, but many observed land surface drivers are not continuously available at these resolutions. We evaluate an approach to overcome this challenge for land surface temperature (LST), a World Meteorological Organization Essential Climate Variable and a key driver for surface heat fluxes. The Chequamegon Heterogenous Ecosystem Energy‐balance Study Enabled by a High‐density Extensive Array of Detectors (CHEESEHEAD19) field experiment provided a scalable testbed. We downscaled LST from satellites (GOES‐16 and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station [ECOSTRESS]) with further refinement using airborne hyperspectral imagery. Temporally and spatially downscaled LST compared well to independent observations from a network of 20 micrometeorological towers and piloted aircrafts in addition to Landsat‐based LST retrieval and drone‐based LST observed at one tower site. The downscaled 50‐m hourly LST showed good relationships with tower (r² = 0.79, RMSE = 3.5 K) and airborne (r² = 0.75, RMSE = 2.4 K) observations over space and time, with precision lower over wetlands and lakes, and some improvement for capturing spatio‐temporal variation compared to a geostationary satellite. Further downscaling to 10 m using hyperspectral imagery resolved hot and cold spots across the landscape as evidenced by independent drone LST, with significant reduction in RMSE by 1.3 K. These results demonstrate a simple pathway for multi‐sensor retrieval of high space and time resolution LST.